According to a latest report the country may grow at a rate of 7.9 percent in this present fiscal year if the lands receive normal rainfall with the monsoon season upon us, as this will help to boost agricultural development and thus, increase rural growth.The report created by Crisil, the rating agency this fiscal year the country can expect a growth of 7.9 percent as opposed to the previous year’s 7.6 percent. But the condition provided in this case was that monsoon must maintain at its normalcy and the global scenario does not turn towards the worse.
To directly quote the report itself, “if the monsoons are normal, then that would give the agricultural sector a one-time growth kick which is especially anticipated due to the given low base rate of the past 2 years. This will further pull up the wilting rural Indian demands and thus, through extension also pull up the overall GDP growth of the economy.The rating agencies also maintained a hopeful expectation from the Reserve Bank of India, and believe that it would continue with their accommodative financial stance and reduce the repo rates by another 25 basis points in this financial year.
The agency also stated that it was the economy’s good fortune in respect to the crude oil and commodities sector which has been a driving force for the economy’s growth recently. It also emphasized that the mid-term outlook for the country should be framed with the goal of cleaning up the banks’ balance sheets along with proper implementation of the GST Bill (goods and service taxes bill). However, the growth is at most modest for the economy and is not at par with the public expectations. But an upward curve is anyway better than a downward one.
The Crisil agency also added that with additions of financial inclusion policies like Jan Dhan and digitization amidst others also have the potential to transform the economy’s growth for the better.
In terms of employment sector the Chief Economist Dharmakirti Joshi of Crisil stated that, the government must provide 6000 jobs per month and it is falling short of achieving that target. The report also goes on to suggest improvements in the infrastructural operations of the country where it has become pertinent to pay attention to issues like seamless availability of electricity, improved network of roads, improved availability of social amenities like education, health etc are essential for sustainable economic growth.
The report further expressed that they would keep a close watch for more executive reforms along with persistent implementations of policy actions that have already been announced. The agency also believes that the country’s ranking in the realms of ease of doing business and competitiveness is also expected to increase in 2016 due to the government’s reform initiatives pro-international business.
But on a lower note the initiatives to increase the efficiency of the sectors such as health, education, technology, goods and labour markets is still found to be lacking for the most part.